Grateful for You: This is our final newsletter for 2023, and we will be returning to our normal coverage on Wednesday, January 10, 2024. Thank you so much for being a subscriber and for reading our work this past year. Most importantly, thank you for caring about organic food. Wishing you all a great year ahead!
As organic continues its growth trajectory, surpassing $67 billion in annual sales, the industry is filled with both challenges and opportunities.
Here are the five major storylines that we will be watching for in 2024.
Grower Group Lawsuit — Without question, this is the single biggest story in organic, not just this year but ever since the National Organic Program went into effect in 2002.
If this lawsuit goes through and grower groups are deemed illegal, industry executives foresee chaos, and nearly every single participant in the organic sector will be impacted.
As of now, the USDA has not publicly commented on the lawsuit, but that silence will soon be coming to an end. The USDA has until early January to respond.
If you are unfamiliar with grower groups, we have covered them recently here and here.
The State of California Defining “Regenerative” — This is another enormous development that could have serious ramifications for organic.
California is seeking to legally define “regenerative” and if it does so without organic farming methods attached to it, the term “regenerative” has the potential to displace “organic” in the marketplace.
Just like shoppers erroneously prioritize “natural” over “organic,” the same could happen with “regenerative,” even though toxic chemicals, such as glyphosate, can be sprayed on a regenerative farm. Not surprisingly, major chemical companies are embracing regenerative in a very significant way.
The first of five listening sessions to define “regenerative” was just held, and the State’s Board of Food and Agriculture expects to have finalized a recommendation about its definition by next summer.
Continued Emergence of the Two Organic Add-On Labels — One of the real bright spots and areas of optimism in the industry centers around Regenerative Organic Certified® (ROC) and Real Organic Project (ROP).
Among other things, these two labels both prohibit hydroponics and livestock factories, and many organic companies are actively seeking out these certifications. ROC just surpassed one million acres certified, and ROP recently named a new leader for its joint venture with Naturland, something that should increase its adoption among organic brands.
As witnessed at the Regenerative Organic Certified® events in 2023 and the Real Organic Project 2023 Conference, the camaraderie and collaboration within each of these certifications is incredibly strong. A palpable sense of togetherness and community exists that is not often found in the industry today.
Both certifications will have a big impact in the year ahead.
Challenging Financing Environment — 2023 was an extremely difficult time for organic brands to raise money, and the big question heading into 2024 is whether that worsens or not.
Despite the fact that new funds from venture capitalists continue to emerge, there are some bankers who believe this capital crunch may be the ‘new norm.’
Something that we have heard, particularly at Expo East 2023, is that numerous organic brands have decided to stop expanding the number of retail doors they are at, with the goal of increasing velocity at their existing stores. Given that capital is now much more challenging to access, reaching profitability has become paramount.
U.S. Organic Trade Show — Over the last few years, there has been consternation among many organic brands for having to share the country’s largest organic trade show (Expo West) with GMO 2.0 companies.
This sentiment was exacerbated by New Hope releasing a white paper in support of GMO 2.0 technologies, in addition to the contentious GMO 2.0 panel at Expo West 2023.
In recent months, a major international trade show operator has been in communication with influential industry leaders to gauge their interest about an all-organic trade show in the U.S.
As of now, there is nothing concrete to report, but it should not be a huge surprise if something formal is announced in 2024.
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Have a fantastic 2024! 
Max Goldberg, Founder |
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